MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CDT TUE APR 06 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/FAR NWRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061743Z - 061830Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHY
   
   A FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS THAT HAS PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER OVER
   MI WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO WRN NY/FAR NWRN PA.
   SHOULD THE LINE MAINTAIN INTENSITY...A WW MAY NEED TO BE
   ISSUED...PRIMARILY FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. 
   
   DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER WRN NY...A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
   ABLE TO LIFT NWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW ORIENTED
   ROUGHLY FROM NEAR BUFFALO...SEWD INTO CNTRL PA...THEN ARCING NWD
   AGAIN INTO SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY
   FOCUSED ALONG THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS
   OCCURRING...CINH REMAINS STRONG OVER THE REGION...AND AS THE LINE
   REACHES FAR WRN NY/PA BETWEEN 1930-2000Z...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN ELEVATED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 60 TO 70 KTS WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL ROTATION...PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF
   SEVERE HAIL. STORMS WILL INITIALLY PROGRESS EWD...THEN MAY ARC TO
   THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE MEAN UPPER FLOW BECOMES WNWLY NEAR THE
   SOUTHERN TIER.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/06/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   41947875 42017986 42248037 43267929 43277810 43077726
               42797645 42017654 41947875