MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...S-CENTRAL
   GA...NWRN PANHANDLE OF FL.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 142302Z - 150100Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER
   
   A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITHIN WSW-ENE ALIGNED BAND OF TSTMS
   MOVING ALONG ITS AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION...MAY POSE POTENTIAL FOR A
   BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AND/OR ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS. 
   TORNADO WAS REPORTED IN COFFEE COUNTY AL AROUND 2220Z AND ALSO SRN
   BARBOUR COUNTY AT 2248Z...FROM A SUPERCELL THAT IS MERGING WITH
   OTHER CONVECTION TO ITS S.  
   
   SOME ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS APPEAR MRGL BUT COLLECTIVELY
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SVR THREAT...WITH AROUND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR MAGNITUDE...POCKETS OF 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG...RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN WARM-SECTOR INFLOW REGION...AND SUFFICIENT SFC
   THETAE TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT FOR MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG. 
   WEAK SFC WINDS LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...BUT ACTUALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR GIVEN PRESENCE OF 20-25 KT FLOW 1-2 KM UP.  SFC MESOANALYSIS
   DEPICTS WARM FRONT FROM BETWEEN SSI-JAX...NWWD ACROSS SRN GA TO
   VICINITY WILCOX COUNTY...THEN CONJOINED WITH CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
   FROM DOOLY COUNTY GA WSWWD TO NEAR MOB.  BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHAT MORE
   DIFFUSE FARTHER WWD ACROSS SRN MS AND SERN LA TO NEAR BTR...ALTHOUGH
   ITS BAROCLINICITY MAY BE SHARPENED/ENHANCED BY INCREASING CONVECTION
   TO ITS N.  EFFECTIVE SRH AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY EACH WILL REMAIN
   MAXIMIZED VERY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
   CONFINED.  MESOCYCLONES TRAVELING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY EVOLVE
   INTO SMALL BOWS OR LEWP FEATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG/DAMAGING
   GUSTS IN HEAVY-PRECIP RFD REGIONS.  COMBINATION OF SLOW WARM-SECTOR
   DIABATIC COOLING...AND VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS TO WEAKEN
   SHEAR...SHOULD OCCUR AFTER ABOUT 02Z...RESULTING IN GRADUAL DECREASE
   IN THREAT THEREAFTER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/14/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31029059 31398927 31688696 32028542 32638384 32478245
               31918254 31768280 31688388 31218551 30668823 30379099
               31029059