MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091708Z - 091815Z
   
   A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   ALTHOUGH NOT YET EVIDENT IN CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING DATA...LIKELY
   DUE TO A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES
   AND CAPE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ALONG A SLOW
   MOVING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR
   ENHANCED BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST OF MEMPHIS THROUGH AREAS WEST OF
   NASHVILLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THE FOCUS
   FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFYING FLOW
   FIELDS...INCLUDING 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY AT LOWER LEVELS...THE
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLY WILL INCREASING.  AND...GIVEN A
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   36118746 37448574 38028479 37698357 36608447 34978712
               34938877 36118746