MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH/NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101826Z - 102030Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN
   NY. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
   PA/SOUTHWEST NY IN VICINITY OF LAKE BREEZE...WITH OTHER UPSTREAM
   DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE
   HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION...AND AN INCREASINGLY
   WARM/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND
   70F...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THIS AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN NY.
   BENEATH A MODERATE BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /30-40 KT AT 500 MB
   PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/...LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS
   CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. A WATCH COULD BE
   NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/10/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   43097895 43887596 42517614 41137911 40958305 43097895