MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...DE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684...
   
   VALID 092311Z - 100115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM IS DECEASING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL
   AND WRN PA...BUT SOME THREAT PERSISTS OVER NERN PA AS WELL AS SRN NJ
   AND DE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE CU FIELD FROM CNTRL
   PA WWD WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE
   OF STORMS. HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT WAS ATTEMPTING TO INCREASE OVER
   WRN AND CNTRL NY...IN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH
   A WLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME LOW END
   SVR HAIL.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS OVER ERN PA AND NJ HAS
   STABILIZED...IT MAY DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING WITH
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OUT OF THE WNW.
   
   ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER SW ONTARIO MAY PERSIST AS IT TRAVELS SEWD
   LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...
   PBZ...
   
   LAT...LON   38587499 38477558 40147746 41697951 42287942 42917889
               43397899 43547701 42947568 41997474 41007391 39847398
               38587499