MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0936 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MO...WRN TN...EXTREME SWRN KY.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 050236Z - 050500Z
   
   EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN TRAIN-ECHO
   CONFIGURATION...MOVING SEWD FROM SERN MO AND EXTREME WRN KY ACROSS
   PORTIONS NWRN TN.  RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE LIKELY...LOCALLY
   EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR...WITH REPEATED PASSAGE OF HEAVIEST CORES
   OVER SOME LOCALES.
   
   ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN MO AND WRN KY IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE PIVOTING TOWARD MORE NW-SE ALIGNMENT...PARALLEL TO MOTION
   OF COMPONENT CELLS.  SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS
   INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MID TN MCS EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS DYER
   COUNTY TN AND IS MOVING SWWD ABOUT 10 KT.  VERY MOIST/UPSTREAM AIR
   IS EVIDENT WITH 925 AND 850 MB RAOB ANALYSES SHOWING PRONOUNCED LOW
   LEVEL MOIST AXIS ACROSS OZARKS...IMPINGING ON BOUNDARY AND ON
   CURRENT CONVECTION OVER MO BOOT-HEEL/NWRN TN REGION.  RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW 1.75-2 INCHES OVER THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
   OBSERVED GPS PW JUST OVER 2 INCHES OVER SERN MO.  LLJ IS NOT FCST TO
   BE ESPECIALLY STG -- GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR CURRENT 20-30 KT
   LEVELS WITH WLY DIRECTION...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
   ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR
   HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z.
    MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY AVAILABLE.
   
   ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND IS FCST
   TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...STG-SVR GUSTS AND LRG HAIL STILL ARE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL.  REF MCD 1780 AND SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS
   ASSOCIATED WITH WWS IN EFFECT OVER THIS AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35668869 36138952 36989072 37229063 36948944 36328779
               35638755 35668869