MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL WI...NERN MN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 030240Z - 030515Z
   
   POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR OCCASIONAL SVR HAIL FROM CONVECTION OVER
   THIS AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING AND SHIFT ESEWD
   TOWARD NRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS LM THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 06Z.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM SFC LOW OVER
   CENTRAL MN...ACROSS MSP AREA THEN SEWD ROUGHLY DOWN WI SIDE OF MS
   RIVER TOWARD EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA.  SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE
   GENERALLY EWD TOWARD NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI THROUGH 11Z...WITH WARM FRONT
   LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD OVER SWRN WI.  NE OF WARM FRONT...VIGOROUS LOW
   LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLY
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE UP TO 1500 J/KG
   ELEVATED MUCAPE ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE PLUME...DROPPING
   SHARPLY WITH NEWD EXTENT.  STG MIDLEVEL FLOW -- I.E. ABOUT 50 KT AT
   500 MB -- WILL COMBINE WITH VEERING WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC TO YIELD
   FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT ACROSS THIS REGION.  FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
   PERMIT STG GUSTS TO REACH GROUND LEVEL AS WELL...ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL
   BE MAIN SVR MODE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   46419291 46249125 45788960 45278874 44888807 44468735
               43898731 43758798 43928902 44178972 44739061 45449258
               45579302 46039359 46419291