MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM/SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 212011Z - 212115Z
   
   HEAVY RAINFALL IN NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS WILL BE A THREAT OVER
   NERN NM AND SERN CO. 
   
   DIURNAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AS
   TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. STORMS HAVE SHOWN MODEST ORGANIZATION
   DUE TO 25 TO 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE
   DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOW VALUES NEAR 0.75 INCHES...WHICH IN
   COMBINATION WITH INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RENEWED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND FAVORABLY
   ORIENTED TERRAIN. CONVERGENCE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
   SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NERN NM AND SERN CO AS A FRONT REMAINS
   STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND AS BROAD NELY/ELY FLOW AROUND A LARGER
   SCALE UPPER LOW FOCUS STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEARLY
   STATIONARY STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
   HAIL...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/21/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   36870330 36370411 36230510 36360579 36930592 37490548
               37720504 37560402 36870330