MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN/NRN OK...S-CENTRAL
   THROUGH NERN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 183...
   
   VALID 252338Z - 260145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 183 CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO THREAT WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY DURING IN NEXT 2-3
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM WRN OK TOWARD S-CENTRAL KS.  CONTINUE WW. 
   ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE TACKED ONTO SRN FRINGES OF WW OVER
   PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL OK.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL ZONE
   DESCRIBED BELOW TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND WARM SECTOR OVER MORE OF NERN
   PANHANDLE...NWRN OK AND SRN KS...SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER NRN
   PORTIONS WW AFTER 00Z AS WELL.  VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL THREAT WILL
   CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS
   ERN KS.  HAIL TO 2.75 INCH DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORM IN
   CUSTER COUNTY OK AT 2315Z...AND EVEN LARGER HAIL IS POSSIBLE OVER
   THIS REGION AS SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION INCREASES.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN FRINGES
   KC METRO AREA SWWD NEAR EMP...BUTLER COUNTY KS...MAJOR AND SRN ELLIS
   COUNTIES OK.  REFLECTIVITY AND VIS ANIMATIONS EACH INDICATE FRONT
   ALREADY HAS BEGUN RETREATING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX
   PANHANDLE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD ACROSS HEMPHILL/GRAY
   COUNTIES.  DRYLINE -- INITIALLY INTERSECTING COLD FRONT INVOF NWRN
   WHEELER COUNTY TX...EXTENDS SWD ACROSS HALL COUNTY.  THIS BOUNDARY
   MAY DRIFT/RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD THROUGH 02Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/MIXING WANES ON BOTH SIDES OF DRYLINE.
   WITH WEAKENED VERTICAL MIXING...MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS E OF DRYLINE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
   SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...MLCAPES REMAINING AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER WRN OK.  MEANWHILE
   LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER 50 KT THROUGH 02Z...GREATLY INCREASING
   HODOGRAPH SIZE.  EXPECT 0-1 KM SRH TO INCREASE TO 300-500 J/KG RANGE
   OVER WRN OK DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION THROUGH EVENING AS WELL...GIVEN
   STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT IN JTN/TCC PROFILERS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34400056 36210046 37479821 39259517 37009512 37009601
               36149600 36169765 35619767 34849852 34489969 34400056