MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN
   KY...WRN TN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...
   
   VALID 242236Z - 242330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60
   CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE INITIALLY POSITIONED FROM
   SERN MO SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR.  SOME COUNTIES E OF WW MAY NEED TO
   BE ADDED AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERMIT...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF NRN BOW
   ACROSS PORTIONS SRN IL.  HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL STABILIZATION TRENDS
   WITH EWD EXTENT INDICATE ATTM THAT ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED
   FARTHER E.
   
   CONVECTIVE BAND CONTAINS TWO PRIMARY BOWING SEGMENTS MOVING ENEWD
   APPROXIMATELY 40 KT...ONE MOVING ENE TOWARD CGI-MDH AREA...AND ONE
   NEAR ARG MOVING TOWARD NWRN TN.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT
   ACROSS N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN AR BEHIND THIS LINE...WITH
   INSUFFICIENT TIME AND SPATIAL EXTENT FOR ADDITIONAL/FRONTAL
   DEVELOPMENT BEHIND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND.
   DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR SVR...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES EVIDENT
   WHERE AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY EXISTS.  HOWEVER...LACK OF INSTABILITY
   WILL LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL WITH ACTIVITY OVER AND DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS
   AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF LINE BECOMES
   DRIER AND LESS BUOYANT EWD ACROSS MS RIVER INTO IL/TN...WITH
   CONVECTION MOVING PAST EARLIER/PRE-STORM MOIST AXIS.  MOIST AXIS
   STILL IS EVIDENT JUST AHEAD OF LINE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AR...HOWEVER
   PRECURSORY CLOUD/PRECIP AREA HAS HAD LIMITED DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY
   WILL BE LIMITED.  PRIND DOWNWARD REFLECTIVITY TREND OVER MOST OF AR
   PORTION OF LINE WILL CONTINUE...AND NRN BOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER MOVING
   OVER IL INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/24/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   38079038 38168909 38048813 37278811 35518931 34589087
               34639237 35179175 35689109 36109112 36879039 37499023
               37759025 38079038