MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 110637Z - 110730Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   WILL DEVELOP E OF WW 0012 BY 0730Z.  A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY
   0700Z.
   
   AS OF 0625Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONGLY-FORCED QLCS
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR RUE TO JUST W OF TXK TO NEAR LFK MOVING EWD AT
   AROUND 40 KT.  THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THIS SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM
   HARRISON TO TRINITY COUNTIES IN ERN TX WHERE SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE
   ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN SRM DATA.  IMMEDIATE
   INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS LA INTO ERN AR REMAINS WARM AND MOIST EARLY
   THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   60S.  MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR THESE SURFACE
   CONDITIONS YIELDS A NARROW CAPE PROFILE WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE.
   
   AREA VWPS AND CORRESPONDING RUC WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT VERY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A 60-70 KT LLJ WITH 0-1 KM
   SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.  WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   PRIMARILY LINEAR...THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN
   ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/11/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   30949380 32099318 33269293 33939231 34099153 33869106
               33259093 32479122 31459187 30849258 30639323 30949380