MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA FROM FL BIG BEND SWD TO
   W-CNTRL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 210536Z - 210700Z
   
   SHOULD ONGOING STORMS MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN
   0630-0700Z.  AFTER MOVING ONSHORE...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN.  A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 0520Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WAVY LINE OF TSTMS
   FROM 55 WSW CTY TO 75 NW PIE TO 110 W PIE WITH A GENERAL SYSTEM
   MOTION OF 270/40 KT.  SENSIBLE HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES ARE MAINTAINING
   AT LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AS OF
   05Z WITH RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATING MLCAPES OF 300-500 J/KG. 
   OVER THE PENINSULA...AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER/DRIER WITH
   LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS.
   
   CURRENT TLH/TPA VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY
   STRONG INVOF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE.  MOREOVER...THE LOW LATITUDE
   TRACK OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING OVER THE ERN GULF WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS TOWARD
   THE COAST.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY BOWING PORTIONS
   OF CONVECTIVE LINE GIVEN THE MODESTLY FAST STORM MOTIONS.  THE
   STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INLAND INTO A
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/21/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE...
   
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