MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0819 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL...GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 160219Z - 160415Z
   
   A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST SHORTLY. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 738
   AND EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL...SERN GA...AND PERHAPS SRN SC.
   
   DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE-TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND STRONG INFLUX OF TROPICAL
   MOISTURE...ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS TSTMS MOVING EWD/NEWD 
   ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...RESIDUAL
   TROPICAL LOW OLGA...NOW OVER THE ERN GULF...IS FORECAST TO
   ACCELERATE NEWD AND BECOME RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO INTENSIFYING SWLY
   MEAN-LAYER FLOW FROM THE NERN GULF ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FL. GIVEN
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F...SHARP WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN GA...PLENTIFUL
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD ASCENT...AND ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
   WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
   
   INITIAL WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE ADVANCING SQUALL
   LINE...WITH ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE LINE/WARM FRONT
   INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN GA. WITH TIME...AS GULF LOW APPROACHES THE
   WEST COAST OF FL...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE GULF
   COAST OF FL...PRIMARILY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 12/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   32088081 32508125 32568235 32148314 30358369 29238296
   28128258 28228217 29308165 30798142