MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 141956Z - 142100Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR ERN AR TO NWRN
   AL/PARTS OF MIDDLE TN.  POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION
   WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   CENTRAL OH SWWD THROUGH SWRN KY/FAR WRN TN TO CENTRAL AR.  REGIONAL
   RADARS INDICATED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN INSTABILITY/ MOISTURE AXIS
   EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH ERN AR/NRN MS INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL.
   WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KT SUGGEST
   STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS WILL
   ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA FROM SERN AR
   THROUGH NRN MS IS LOCATED S OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW
   SPREADING E ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN. 
   THUS...DESPITE GREATER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THIS AREA...
   GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
   SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   34659148 35099130 35579055 36038925 36198801 36038661
   35568647 34888677 34048778 33668907 33459081 33579142
   33989152