MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 PM CST MON NOV 12 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...FAR SERN KS AND NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 122202Z - 130030Z
   
   AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
   SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   DAYTIME HEATING HAS LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
   MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MO AND
   AR...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WARMING IN ITS WAKE. 18Z LMN SOUNDING
   SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WITH WARMING
   NOTED ABOVE 500 MB. GIVEN WARM SECTOR CAPPING...STORM DEVELOPMENT
   SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND JUST N OF COLD FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL LOCALLY
   OVERCOME CAP. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WITH EWD
   EXTENT...THUS...A STORM OR TWO COULD YIELD SMALL HAIL OVER SWRN MO
   ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR LONG LIVED NOR SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/12/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
   
   38249257 38119206 37489182 36989266 36339554 36639577
   36989549 37629482 38009390 38209309