MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 220649Z - 220815Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SMALL...TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A
   BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
   ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PW DATA SHOW
   A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS REGION WITH
   DEWPOINTS NOW SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   THAT TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK WHICH IS LIMITING
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   
   MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE OF SCATTERED...SMALL SHOWERS...SOME OF
   WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED MID-LEVEL ROTATION.  THESE RADAR OBSERVATIONS
   ARE SUPPORTED BY CURRENT CORPUS CHRISTI VWP WHICH IS INDICATING
   MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2 PER
   S2/ AND AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  GIVEN THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND MODEST WIND SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR MORE ROBUST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
   THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   27599753 27789796 28229815 28599810 28929794 29139765
   29269728 29219682 28949635 28679627 28199670 27879712