MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND W-CENTRAL TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 170941Z - 171145Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING SVR THREAT.  CONVECTION IS FORMING
   AND SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR
   MAF...PERHAPS SWD TO BETWEEN SJT-FST. 
   
   PLUME OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
   SHIFTING/SPREADING EWD ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN --
   AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM AND FAR W TX.  THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   WELL JUXTAPOSED WITH ENRICHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY ALONG AND
   BELOW W TX CAPROCK.  SFC DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO MID 60S F
   BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND W TX MESONET DATA...WHICH ALSO SHOWS
   RELATIVELY BACKED/SSELY SFC WINDS.  WHEN COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT
   LLJ-LEVEL FLOW...THIS YIELDS ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
   ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS CAPROCK
   REGION...FCST TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NW TX AS
   NM PERTURBATION APCHS.  MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
   EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOMING ROOTED AT OR NEAR SFC...DESPITE
   STABLE LAYER NEAR 2 KM AGL THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 50 J/KG
   SBCINH.  THESE FACTORS SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND PERHAPS CONDITIONAL
   TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN BECOME RELATIVELY
   DISCRETE AND SUSTAINED.  LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
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