MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 141756Z - 141900Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND NW OK OVER THE
   NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   LIKELY AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
   THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM NEAR GREAT
   BEND KS TO NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY
   INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
   COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS. THE INCREASING
   INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE LATEST PROFILERS ACROSS SRN KS
   SUGGEST ABOUT 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT WHICH SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
   SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER TIME.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 10/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
   
   39659911 37889965 36979999 36229977 36009919 36159838
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