MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 140127Z - 140300Z
   
   RECENT ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG SW-NE ORIENTED
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN TO NCNTRL KS IS PROBABLY THE
   BEGINNING OF MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
   NIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
   ZONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   IS BEING CONSIDERED.
   
   LATEST DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
   STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
   C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 40-50KT...IN CONCERT WITH
   INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS...NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
   SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE BULK
   OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE WEAKLY CAPPED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
   NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SEVERE STORM
   COVERAGE TO WARRANT A WATCH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   39500043 40229847 40109719 39169694 38519737 37320013
   37240083 37700154 38690152 39150109