MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ND...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN...NERN THROUGH
   S-CENTRAL SD...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN NEB.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 062202Z - 062330Z
   
   TSTMS MAY FORM IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND DRYLINE
   BETWEEN SERN ND AND SWRN NEB...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS.
   
   2130Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN ND INVOF JMS...COLD FRONT
   SWWD ALONG LINE ABR...VTN...25 N SNY...INTO ANOTHER LOW JUST S CYS. 
   COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS NEB AND EWD
   15-20 KT OVER DAKOTAS.  DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT OVER CHERRY COUNTY
   NEB AND EXTENDS SSWWD THROUGH IML...WITH SLGT NWWD RETREAT POSSIBLE
   BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY FRONT.  COLD FRONTAL ZONE JUST NE OF ND
   LOW ALSO IS MOVING SEWD 10-15 KT UNTIL PASSING THROUGH INFLECTION
   POINT NEAR CKN...WITH WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL MN.  ALTHOUGH
   RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 50-75 J/KG SBCINH ALONG MUCH OF FRONTAL
   ZONE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CU/TCU...ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
   WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING HAS TAKEN PACE ON
   RELATIVELY HIGH TERRAIN.  LARGEST MLCAPES THROUGH 00Z SHOULD REMAIN
   AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG OVER ERN DAKOTAS AMIDST MID 60S F SFC DEW
   POINTS...THEN DECREASE WITH SFC COOLING.  50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   PROFILES SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION FORMING INVOF
   FRONT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WHERE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. 
   TSTMS FARTHER N MAY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AND
   DISCRETE FOR LONGER DURATION...WITH MEAN WIND AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   VECTORS ALIGNED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FRONT.  FARTHER S...FLOW ALOFT IS
   PARALLEL TO FRONT...WHICH MAY UNDERCUT CONVECTION QUICKLY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/06/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...
   
   40580179 41460122 42500091 43219970 44439851 46709826
   47319715 47229618 46459573 45019638 43399734 41869852
   40140081