MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 042137Z - 042300Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN
   04/22Z-05/00Z.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
   SUSTAINED.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE
   REGION WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SD SWWD
   THROUGH CNTRL NEB TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN KS.  A COUPLE OF
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE ALSO ANALYZED OVER EXTREME NRN
   KS AND FROM S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL NEB.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS
   ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F OVER WRN
   AND CNTRL PARTS OF KS.  THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID/UPPER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING
   CAP.
   
   THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.  LATEST SHORT TERM RUC/WRF
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 04/22-05/00Z.  THOUGH A
   GENERAL WEAKNESS EXISTS IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...AREA
   PROFILERS INDICATE A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO SERN NEB
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BACKED INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING BOUNDARIES.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.  A BRIEF
   TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT CAN
   MOVE/PROPAGATE THROUGH ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER
   S-CNTRL/SERN NEB.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   39349972 40629896 41379766 41489681 41309605 40779596
   39899618 39699681 38879901