MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SD...FAR SE ND AND WRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695...
   
   VALID 300637Z - 300730Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 695
   CONTINUES.
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
   PART OF WW 695 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE MARGINAL THREAT MAY
   EXPAND NEWD INTO WRN MN AND FAR SE ND. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
   ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL SD. HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   THE NRN END OF A LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500
   TO 1000 J/KG. THE LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM WOOD LAKE MN SUGGESTS
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KT WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE LINEAR MCS MOVES NEWD INTO WRN MN. FURTHER
   SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN CNTRL
   SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT IS
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES EXTENDS NEWD FROM WRN NEB INTO SCNTRL SD. THIS ALONG WITH
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS MAY SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE WRN PART OF
   WW 695 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/30/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43029857 43009953 43499954 43509964 43779964 43689981
   43689999 43720038 44190038 44189988 44109982 44109965
   44109958 44189969 44209928 44899933 44919870 44649871
   44649789 44559787 44549645 44199648 44199687 43859691
   43849713 43499712 43509739 43169740 43189762 42839764
   42889789 42759796 42799807 42879818 42909833