MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY INTO NRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 281528Z - 281730Z
   
   A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
   THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
   IN AN ARC FROM 40 NNE BUF TO 30 WNW ITH TO 35 E OF BFD AS OF 1515Z. 
   THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BEING STRONGLY
   FORCED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES.  12Z BUF OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH AN MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
   MOREOVER...THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES NEED ONLY TO WARM
   INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   LARGELY WLY...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS AS STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED...HOWEVER MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD GIVEN THE RATHER COLD
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/28/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   44917509 44837383 43097396 41637450 41287643 41617775
   41727807 42197777 42727737 43127773 43237744 43297668
   43677623 44287625