MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN TX...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN OK..FAR SWRN
   AR/NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 272044Z - 272315Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER
   SERN OKC/SWRN AR...WITH OTHER TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER WEAKER BOUNDARIES
   ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN TX. ISOLATED SVR WIND MARGINAL SVR HAIL
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MLC TO
   NEAR MWT AND MOVING SLOWLY SWD. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A WEAK
   UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SCENTRAL OK HAS PROVIDED A FOCUS FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR OVER THE LAST HR.
   ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WAS MODEST /20 KTS PER DQU PROFILER DATA/
   STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   AROUND 2500 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SVR
   THREAT. FURTHER SOUTH OVER NCENTRAL/NERN TX AND NWRN LA...
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR ALONG SEVERAL
   INNOCUOUS OUTFLOW/REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES. SIMILAR TO FURTHER
   NORTH...LACK OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH/LONGEVITY AND KEEP THE SVR THREAT MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/27/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   31259442 31679726 32349864 32989895 33639869 34079822
   34309777 34399701 34329604 34049483 33739379 32619282
   32259274 31329299