MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...WRN MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 271859Z - 272130Z
   
   TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL WI WILL CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING INTO ERN WI AND EVENTUALLY WRN LOWER MI
   THROUGH 00Z. A MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NERN INTO
   SWRN WI. ALONG WITH MODEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH...A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER WRN WI WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UVM OVER THE AREA. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   /-20 DEG C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERLAID ON
   TOP OF AN AXIS OF SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE
   AROUND 750 J/KG. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODEST
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES /30 KTS/ MAY FAVOR BANDS OF MARGINAL
   SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/27/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...
   
   42768951 43808958 44808922 45728870 46038774 45758653
   45108547 44338472 43448492 42248584 42418839 42458914