MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO
   EASTERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 242054Z - 242300Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
   QUESTIONABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ROUGHLY
   BISECTING MN...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN
   NEB. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
   PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FRONTAL
   FORCING AND ERODING CINH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
   FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
   NEB. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH EAST EXTENT ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR...SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM MINNEAPOLIS/OMAHA...IN
   ACCORDANCE WILL LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUGGEST
   AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/JUST EAST OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT. LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR/MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/24/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   
   44569441 45049371 44489222 43249213 41459446 40519624
   41109730 41999680 43449546