MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN MN INCLUDING
   ARROWHEAD...WRN LS...NWRN WI.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 676...
   
   VALID 210808Z - 211015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 676
   CONTINUES.
   
   INITIAL BAND OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED WAA/ASCENT HAS PASSED LARGELY E
   OF WW...AS OF 745Z.  CORRESPONDING AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS LS AND UPPER PENINSULA OF
   MI...MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED BUOYANT
   LAYER.  ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR IS EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY...WITH MRGLLY SVR HAIL BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FROM
   MOST VIGOROUS EMBEDDED CELLS.  PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FCST
   UVV FIELDS SUGGEST WI PORTION WW...BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
   ACTIVITY...MAY BE SMALL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT LEAST...WITH BULK
   OF ASCENT E-N-NW OF THIS AREA.
   
   HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL MAY BE ENTERING MORE TEMPORARY LULL ACROSS
   MN PORTION WW UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES NEWD-ENEWD FROM
   WW 677.  WW 677 ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   MCS ACROSS NRN MN...WITH LARGE HAIL REMAINING PRIMARY CONCERN.
   ELEVATED MUCAPE -- BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS -- INCREASES FROM
   AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER WRN U.P TO AROUND 3000 J/KG PORTIONS E-CENTRAL
   MN SW DLH.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUITABLE FOR ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND N OF BROAD...50 KT...SWLY LLJ. 
   EFFECTIVE PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE SFC...MITIGATING
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   45399004 45379063 45609067 45629278 46169299 46239373
   47259371 47409437 48749441 48609384 48499377 48549343
   48669309 48549259 48219236 48259221 48359227 48349196
   48039150 48269086 48109074 48099001 48028983 47988914
   47958942 46599045 46338996 46018991