MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E CNTRL CO THROUGH WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191912Z - 192145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP NWD
   TOWARD W CNTRL AND NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO EWD THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL KS.
   SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH 60S
   DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
   DEVELOPING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS ALONG A ZONE OF
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON PERIPHERY OF REMNANT MORNING CLOUDS. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST 30 TO 35 KT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WRN KS
   ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WITH 40 TO 45 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW STRATUS
   IS MIXING OUT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD WITH TIME.
   STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY
   DEVELOP NWD WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/19/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
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