MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 162242Z - 170015Z
   
   HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
   COVERAGE OVER NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY INITIALLY
   DEVELOPED IN CONNECTION WITH MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT EXTENDS FROM
   AZ...ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS INTO CO.  MUCH OF ERN CO IS QUITE DRY WITH
   DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F.  AS A RESULT...SUB CLOUD
   LAYER RH IS VERY LOW AND THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL GIVEN
   UPDRAFTS ARE APPROACHING A REGION WHERE PW VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH.
    ADDITIONALLY...A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS
   FOR THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE ALONG AS THEY TRACK TOWARD NWRN KS. 
   AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THAT
   APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE
   NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES.  UNLESS A WELL DEFINED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE
   WERE TO EVOLVE OVER NERN CO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
   SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
   
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