MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 052350Z - 060145Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 00-03Z ACROSS REGION WITH THE
   MORE INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   SOME SEVERE HAIL.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   RECENT LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK DATA INDICATE THAT A TSTM HAS
   DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROXIMATELY 35 NW OF INL. 
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 00-03Z ALONG AND PERHAPS IN WAKE
   OF SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SWD THROUGH REGION.  AIR MASS S OF
   FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
   OF 90-95 F.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY HIGH...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
   
   RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   WEAKENED CONSIDERABLE FROM THAT OBSERVED THIS MORNING AT BIS.  THESE
   WEAKER LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   /PER GRAND FORKS VWP AND MODEL FORECASTS/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF ANY DEVELOPING STORMS.  NONETHELESS...THE
   MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES DO INDICATE SOME THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY MORE INTENSE STORMS THAT MAY
   DEVELOP.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46519839 46759859 47669802 48489624 48839505 48699446
   48379443 47659445 46819615 46289724