MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN ND/CENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 012246Z - 012345Z
   
   WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CU FIELD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR SIGNS OF A
   WEAKENING CAP...THOUGH WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY ATTM.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
   SD ATTM...IN THE WAKE OF AC/ACCAS FIELD SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ERN
   DAKOTAS AND INTO NWRN MN.  THIS INCREASE IN CUMULUS APPEARS TO BE
   OCCURRING NEAR THE N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   DAKOTAS...ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS MANITOBA ATTM.
   
   WHILE CUMULUS IS INCREASING IN CENTRAL SD...INSTABILITY/SHEAR
   COMBINATION IS LESS FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION THAN AREAS FURTHER
   N.  WHILE MARGINAL HAIL OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
   WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL SD...GREATER
   SEVERE THREAT -- CONDITIONAL UPON CAPPING/STORM DEVELOPMENT --
   APPEARS TO EXIST OVER SD WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT ARE INDICATED.  WITH DEVELOPMENT LESS CERTAIN ACROSS ND DUE TO
   CAPPING AND SEVERE THREAT LESSER ACROSS SD WHERE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
   INITIATING...NEED FOR A WW REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.  WE WILL CONTINUE
   TO MONITOR CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
   EXPANSION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   48489953 48659877 48519759 48069713 47079734 44529853
   43520002 43860041 46089985 46930001