MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN LOWER MI/PARTS OF FAR NRN IND AND FAR NWRN
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291823Z - 291930Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
   CENTRAL-SRN LOWER MI...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FARTHER S INTO NRN IND
   AND NWRN OH.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPER CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM BAY TO GRATIOT COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
   CU FIELD ALONG AND E OF LAKE BREEZE IN SWRN LOWER MI AND ALONG
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN NRN IND.  SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD
   FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM NRN LAKE HURON TO SWRN LOWER MI/ NWRN IND
   TO CENTRAL IL.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED SBCIN HAS WEAKENED
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING
   SUPPORTING FURTHER WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION.  WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE
   THUS FAR LIMITING GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.  
   
   WEAK IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN /25 NNE
   MKE/...TRACKING EWD MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR MORE CU/TCU
   AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/29/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
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