MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HIGH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 252214Z - 252315Z
   
   STRONG INSOLATION AND RELATIVELY MOIST SELY SURFACE FLOW HAS
   PRODUCED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PLUME OF 60-65F DEWPOINTS
   EXTENDING FROM SRN PLAINS TWD WCNTRL CO...WITH 100 MB MLCAPE
   2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM INTO WRN PANHANDLE REGION.
   
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...BUT WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT
   COMBINED WITH SELY SURFACE WIND RESULTING IN NWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   VECTOR AT 30 TO 35 KTS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION HAS
   DEVELOPED ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF RELATIVELY DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND EXPECT THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   COVERAGE TO INCREASE EWD OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS. LOCALIZED LARGE
   HAIL/SEVERE WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE
   MARGINAL SHEAR AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM MAKES A
   WATCH UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 08/25/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
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   37470136 36850113 36420130 36020161 35790197 35650301
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