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Mesoscale Discussion 1881 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SWRN MO...FAR NWRN AR...EXTREME SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241831Z - 242000Z
TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SW OF WW 647. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. THE AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT GROWING CBS/TSTMS
ALONG A SW TO NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR TUL TO GMU TO SGF. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION HAS BEEN ERODED PER 18Z SGF RAOB. LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALREADY FROM CNTRL
TO NERN OK TO THE S/SW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS HAS BECOME
JUXTAPOSED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS PER REGIONAL WIND
PROFILERS...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS
CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE.
..GRAMS.. 08/24/2007
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
37819353 37529320 37089295 36609340 36149412 35769473
35679526 35919583 36269586 36559581 37019520 37499455
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