MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0412 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 232112Z - 232315Z
   
   SFC BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS SWWD INTO
   SWRN KS BEFORE 23Z. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW PRIOR TO
   THEN.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN
   AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KS SWWD TO NEAR DDC TO NEAR LBL.
   MOD CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN TO OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
   DDC SWD TO NEAR LBL. BASED ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
   OF HEATING WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE REMAINING CINH /50-100 J/KG/ IS
   REMOVED. WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY...AS
   A SECONDARY BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS MOVES SWD AT LEAST SCT TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. INITIALLY MID LEVEL
   FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK /20-25 KTS/ PER THE TCC AND HVL
   PROFILERS/. HOWEVER STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON REGIONAL
   PROFILER/VWP DATA AND WV IMAGERY FURTHER WEST OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
   WILL OVERSPREADS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ BECOMING REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-35 KTS/...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
   WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS BY 00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...AMA...
   
   38379884 37729936 37229989 37030030 36880110 36860145
   37000187 37080196 37240192 37360181 37650098 37780069
   38020023 38249995 38509964 38619949 38709907 38669882