MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...FAR NRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 222231Z - 230000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE WY WILL HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS SW
   NEB WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO SE WY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY
   EXISTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000
   J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS IN SE WY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO
   INCREASING INSTABILITY HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. AT MID-LEVELS...A 55 KT JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
   CNTRL WY AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE MODERATE VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY
   THIS EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE THE LARGE
   HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS
   STORMS TAP THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NEB BUT THE THREAT
   SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
   
   42600326 42690423 42530496 41900576 41230635 40510618
   40160536 40710369 40880180 41770153 42380239