MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL-NERN NEB/SRN-SERN SD/NWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221145Z - 221245Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER TSTM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN NEB INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SRN-
   SERN SD...AND MOVING INTO NWRN IA.  WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND
   SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  10Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDED EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ATOP A CAPPED
   BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TSTMS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 700 MB.  RUC
   ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED A MID LEVEL /700 MB/ BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   SWRN SD ESEWD ALONG SD/NEB BORDER INTO ERN NEB.  RECENT TSTMS
   LOCATED FROM BROWN/KEYA PAHA COUNTIES TO KNOX COUNTY ARE LIKELY
   BEING SUPPORTED BY WAA ALONG AND N OF THIS MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF WLY
   MID-UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDED FROM DAKOTAS TO UPPER GREAT
   LAKES/ONTARIO.  MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
   WITHIN FAVORED ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WHERE A FEW
   STRONGER CORES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   42159987 42330066 43140080 43629971 43569724 43459527
   43299455 42159464 41669538 41769714