MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...CENTRAL/ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629...630...
   
   VALID 212212Z - 220015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   629...630...CONTINUES.
   
   WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF STG-SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF WW
   629 AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 630 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
   629 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY PRIOR TO 01Z EXPIRATION. WW 630
   MAY ALSO BE CANCELLED EARLY PRIOR TO 03Z EXPIRATION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A
   WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE. CONTINUATION OF HOT BOUNDARY LAYER
   TEMPERATURES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL MAINTAIN
   POTENTIAL FOR DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/. THE GREATEST FORWARD MOTION TO THIS
   LINE REMAINS OVER SERN VA /35-40 KTS/...WITH LINE MOTIONS OF 30-35
   KTS ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. EXTRAPOLATION
   OF THESE LINE MOTIONS WILL TAKE THE SVR THREAT OUT OF ALL OF WW 629
   BY 23Z AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WW 630 BY 02Z. GIVEN THE
   ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT AND ANTICIPATED LITTLE CINH OVER
   FAR ERN/SERN NC INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW WW HAS BEEN ISSUED
   FOR THIS AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/21/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
   
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