MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 200938Z - 201115Z
   
   HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ACROSS SWRN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING AS NEW
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/BACKBUILD ACROSS SWRN MO AND THEN TRAIN
   EWD.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGER SCALE TROUGH TRACKING EWD
   ACROSS MO...WHILE A REMNANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN WAS TRACKING EWD ACROSS SWRN MO.  ASCENT WITH
   BOTH OF THESE FEATURES AND WAA WITH A 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING
   INTO SWRN MO ARE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 
   AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS INDICATED RELATIVELY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
   /AOB 20-25 KT/ AS COMPARED TO THE LLJ...AND THUS RESULTING IN UPWIND
   PROPAGATION VECTORS FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING TSTMS INTO THE NOSE
   OF THE LLJ ACROSS SWRN MO.  THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING...PRIOR TO LLJ TRANSLATING NEWD TOWARD THE
   MID MS VALLEY AS THE MO TROUGH MOVES TOWARD IL BETWEEN 12-18Z PER
   06Z NAM/RUC.
   
   UNTIL THEN...WARM CLOUD PROCESSES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
   ACTIVITY TRAINING E TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/20/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...
   
   36989450 37309463 37549430 37599322 37589208 37229162
   36759163 36649253 36769396