MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1798
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 190436Z - 190730Z
   
   ERN SEMICIRCLE OF REMNANTS OF TC ERIN WILL MOVE NEWD FROM
   SWRN-CENTRAL OK AS PARENT CIRCULATION  - NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN OK
   VICINITY HBR -- CONTINUES MOVING NEWD.  MIXTURE OF TSTMS AND
   WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN RATES COMMONLY AROUND 2
   INCHES/HOUR...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TOPPING 3 INCHES/HOUR IN STRONGEST
   CORES.  SLOW NEWD SHIFT OF PRECIP AREA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
   MULTIPLE/TRAINING CORES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HAZARD FROM THIS HEAVY
   RAIN EVENT.
   
   CHARACTERISTICALLY VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   LIFTED TO LFC OVER BROAD AREA...WITH MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS
   AND GPS DATA EACH INDICATING 2.25-2.50 INCHES PW.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE
   RATES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC...KEEPING LI
   SMALL AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL...GREAT DEPTH OF BUOYANT PROFILE AND LARGE
   BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE EACH LEAD TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.  FURTHER
   SUPPORTING CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
   PRECIP AREA IS 40-50 KT LLJ NOW OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS SW/CENTRAL
   OK.  LLJ IS  PROGGED TO VEER AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY AROUND 09Z...BUT
   SHOULD REMAIN STRONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN MEANTIME. 
   IR CLOUD TOP COOLING TRENDS HAVE BEEN QUITE PROMINENT LAST 2-3
   HOURS...AS ALSO NOTED BY 408Z NESDIS STATEMENT WXUS20 KNES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
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