MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 181255Z - 181500Z
   
   HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL SPREAD
   NWD ACROSS NW TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK OVER THE NEXT 2
   TO 4 HOURS. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY
   WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAINBANDS.
   
   THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN JUST TO THE
   SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK TX. RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ARE
   LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE OF A GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
   IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED LIKELY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
   A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN NCNTRL TX. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES FROM THE
   RED RIVER SWD TO NEAR ABILENE TX. THIS AIR WITH HIGH MOISTURE
   CONTENT SHOULD SPREAD NWWD WITH TIME INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
   WRN OK. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW THUNDERSTORMS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH LATE MORNING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/18/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   33030082 33050026 33299993 33709965 34199939 34669925
   35549907 36289906 36619917 36829951 36899972 36939991
   36900024 36780051 36500075 36010100 35380113 34920125
   34530134 33970151 33570151 33300142 33110123