MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN NY....EXTREME N-CENTRAL PA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 172305Z - 180030Z
   
   SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED WITH LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED BAND OF TSTMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY 01Z.
   DESPITE SEEMINGLY LOW-THETAE/POST-FRONTAL SFC AIR MASS WITH DEW
   POINTS 40S F...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY SFC BASED
   INFLOW PARCELS.  VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT IN
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG.  THIS
   BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AFTER 00Z AS RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DIABATICALLY.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS
   EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION IN SUPPORT OF MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. 
   HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INVOF SFC TROUGH/WIND
   SHIFT LINE...MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION IN TANDEM WITH CONVECTIVE
   PLUME.  GUSTS TO 37 KT WERE CLOCKED AT PEO/SYR DURING PAST HOUR. 
   ALTHOUGH MOST GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKEWISE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
   50 KT SVR CRITERIA...OCCASIONAL/MINOR DMG IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/17/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
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