MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 131711Z - 131845Z
   
   SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW N OF BIS WITH ATTENDANT
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SERN ND...SWRN AND S-CNTRL MN INTO
   NERN IA.  RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND S OF
   THIS BOUNDARY OVER ERN SD INTO W-CNTRL INTO SWRN MN WHERE DEWPOINTS
   HAVE INCREASED TO 65-70 F.  CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WAS
   ONGOING AS OF 1650Z FROM EDDY AND NELSON COUNTIES SEWD TO
   RANSOM...SARGENT AND RICHLAND COUNTIES IN ND.  NRN-MOST STORMS ARE
   LIKELY STILL ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F.
   
   HOWEVER...SRN STORMS MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE BASED
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OWING TO PROXIMITY WARMING/MOISTENING
   BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER W-CNTRL MN.  WOOD
   LAKE MN PROFILER APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILE NEAR WARM FRONT WITH NEARLY 180 DEGREES OF DIRECTIONAL
   VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 4-5 KM AGL AND RESULTANT UNIDIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR PROFILE.  CURRENTLY LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...THOUGH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING
   TO 200-300 M2/S2.
   
   GIVEN ANTICIPATED MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND THE MODERATELY
   STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR INTENSE
   SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A THREAT OF VERY
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   45969703 46429638 46429519 45649387 45009376 44679442
   44529486 44899611 45569692