MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IA INTO NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 130759Z - 130900Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
   ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING/MOVING
   INTO NRN-NERN MO.  GIVEN THAT THESE TSTMS ARE ELEVATED...HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
   WEST CENTRAL IA SINCE 07Z.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NORTH OF
   SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR SRN IA WWD INTO CENTRAL
   NEB.  30 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO WRN IA IS RESULTING IN A
   FAVORABLE WAA REGIME INTO CENTRAL IA.  THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT
   ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF A SEWD MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW LOCATED
   OVER SRN WI WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
   CENTRAL PARTS OF IA INTO NRN-NERN MO.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
   AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM THE
   MID MO RIVER VALLEY SEWD INTO NRN MO/W CENTRAL IL.  EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING TSTM COVERAGE
   SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
   
   41289228 40319172 39999263 40229380 41019459 41759515
   42539557 42869476 42599356 41669259