MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE ND INTO NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101933Z - 102100Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH
   COULD POSSIBLY REQUIRE A WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA 
   APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ROOTED A IN MOIST LAYER ABOVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
   INVERSION.  EVEN FOR THESE PARCELS...WARM LAYER ALOFT APPEARS TO
   HAVE LIMITED CAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG...INHIBITING THE VIGOR OF STORMS
   SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...NEW/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   TO BE OCCURRING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE TO THE EAST OF EARLY
   ACTIVITY...INTO THE VICINITY OF GRAND FORKS.  THIS PROBABLY WILL
   CONTINUE...WITH 30-35 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AIDING PROPAGATION
   TOWARD NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE SURFACE HEATING/SLIGHTLY COOLER
   AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH UNSTABLE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR GROWING MASS OF
   PRECIPITATION...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE
   WITH STORM CLUSTER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS SEEMS MOST
   LIKELY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF GRAND FORKS AND THIEF RIVER FALLS INTO THE
   LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/10/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...
   
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