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Mesoscale Discussion 1709 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101715Z - 101815Z
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM SERN VA ACROSS ERN NC WHERE STRONG HEATING IS TAKING
PLACE. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATING IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH
LEADING EDGE OF UPPER VORT MAX ENTERING THE PIEDMONT AS OF 17Z.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PRESENT WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE AREAS FARTHER E. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MINOR CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER WAVE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WNWLY FLOW WILL HELP MOVE STORMS IN A SELY
DIRECTION TOWARDS THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL GENERALLY LESS THAN SEVERE CRITERIA.
..JEWELL.. 08/10/2007
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
33857834 34867959 35887915 36557860 37237765 37577639
37517579 37387566 35487539 35217547 34597658 33857796
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