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Mesoscale Discussion 1706 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA/ERN-NERN NEB/CENTRAL-SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...
VALID 100645Z - 100745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578
CONTINUES.
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN PART OF
WW 578 THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AS LEADING EDGE OF ERN NEB/FAR SWRN IA TSTM
COMPLEX MOVES SEWD AT 35 KT. UPSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED NRN EXTENT OF ERN NEB/WRN IA TSTM
COMPLEX/BOW ECHO HAD WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. THE SRN EXTENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FAR SWRN IA INTO NWRN
MO/FAR SERN NEB. LATEST TRENDS INDICATED A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TO AROUND 35 KT AS THE GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO OUTRUN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
WIND PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS IN THE PLAINS INDICATED A STRONGER SLY
LLJ LOCATED WWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO CENTRAL NEB WHICH IS PROVIDING
STRONGER MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW ATOP/NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT WITH ERN NEB/WRN IA COMPLEX. GIVEN LOW LEVEL INFLOW
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE-VERY STRONG INSTABILITY OVER KS/SRN NEB AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT FROM SD INTO ERN NEB...ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY OVER NERN NEB.
..PETERS.. 08/10/2007
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
42219521 40989482 40459496 40399630 40509697 41009741
41809823 42499896 43029949 43520003 43790005 44009941
44069864 43169738
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