MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE...IA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 070328Z - 070630Z
   
   IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM REPEAT/REGENERATIVE CONVECTION MAY
   BE AN EVOLVING PROBLEM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA TONIGHT.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED WARM FRONT FROM SERN NEB INTO SRN IA. A
   NUMBER OF STORM OUTFLOWS ALSO EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC
   BOUNDARY FROM NEAR/E OF GRI TO LNK TO 20S OMA. NEW CONVECTION IS
   ERUPTING ALONG THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SWWD FROM
   THE WARM FRONT TO A WEAK THERMAL LOW OVER NCNTRL KS. VERY TO
   EXTREMELY UNSTABLE REGIME IS COINCIDENT WITH THE VARIOUS LOW LEVEL
   BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY FUEL ADDITIONAL ROBUST
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
   FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME
   HAIL...WILL EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
   HOWEVER...EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY POSE A GREATER HAZARD.
   
   LATEST WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATES 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES
   TO BE DIRECTED INTO THE TROUGH AXIS AND WARM FRONT. GIVEN PW VALUES
   AROUND 200 PCT OF NORMAL...AND WEAK STORM PROPAGATION VECTORS
   ORIENTED ALONG THE UPDRAFT GENESIS/FRONTAL ZONES...AN EXCESSIVE
   CONVECTIVE RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS SITUATION
   MAY BE EXACERBATED BY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE
   ACROSS THE REGION AIDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND TRAINING
   POTENTIAL RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...ANY EVOLVING MCS IN THIS AREA WILL SPREAD
   GRADUALLY EAST TO AFFECT AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
   RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER SUSTAINED...OR
   REJUVENATED...AS STRONG MCV NOW DEVELOPING OUT OF LARGE CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX MOVING EAST FROM CO/WRN KS....MOVES EAST ATOP THE LOW LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/07/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
   
   41019473 40639588 40509693 40349785 40899872 41349839
   41719782 42039721 42269669 42479582 42509519 42059460
   41499416