MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN NEB...FAR NWRN KS...NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 042206Z - 050000Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BOUNDARY
   ORIENTED NE-SW FROM CENTRAL/SWRN NEB INTO FAR NERN CO/NWRN KS IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
   AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF TCU EXTENDING FROM GARFIELD COUNTY
   IN NCENTRAL NEB SWWD TO LBF TO NEAR GLD. THIS CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
   ALONG A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIRMASS
   OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. PER REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP
   DATA...VERTICAL SHEAR WAS ADEQUATE FOR SOME STORM
   ROTATION/ORGANIZATION OVER NRN PORTIONS /CENTRAL NEB/ WHERE 30 KTS
   OF MID LVL FLOW EXISTS. THUS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
   SWRN NEB/FAR NERN CO/NWRN KS...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS /AROUND 20
   KTS/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...30 DEG SFC
   T/TD SPREAD COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG
   DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
   
   42009858 42099932 41929993 41580086 41180154 40830202
   40310228 39600231 39400222 39370170 39540119 39950057
   40329979 40699926 41109881 41609824