MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT FRI AUG 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...ERN PA/NJ...SE NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 031933Z - 032100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS OFF
   THE CATSKILL AND POCONO MOUNTAINS.  THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY WEAK
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS...WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. 
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
   POLAR TROUGH.  BUT...A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...UNSATURATED PROFILES AND A HOT...
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW VIGOROUS
   SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS.  THESE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY
   DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PERHAPS SOME
   HAIL...AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WHICH MAY AFFECT THE URBAN CORRIDOR
   FROM THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH PARTS OF THE GREATER
   PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   38357795 38757817 39247752 39727699 40257609 40917570
   41527459 41747402 42057364 42357316 42207259 41777269
   41117359 40887373 40287454 39807534 39327628 38897669
   38457733